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一 |     NEW YORK -- Americans showed their steadfast resilience and kept spending online, at restaurants and other outlets in September even as they grappled with higher prices, rising interest rates and a host of other headwinds piling up.Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, more than twice what economists had expected, and close to a revised 0.8% bump in August, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday. Retail sales in August were inflated after gasoline prices spiked, however. That was not the case in September when gas prices rose more slowly.A closely watched category of retail sales that excludes auto dealers, gas stations and building materials and feeds into the gross domestic product jumped 0.6% last month compared to the prior month.Tuesday's sales figures aren't adjusted for inflation, but the cost of goods barely rose last month, so the increased spending isn't a reflection of higher prices. Prices for durable goods, such as those sold by appliance and electronics stores, actually fell last month.The government’s monthly retail sales report offers only a partial look at consumer spending; it doesn’t include many services, including health care, travel and hotel lodging. But it does cover spending at restaurants, which had a solid 0.9% increase. Spending online rose 1.1% last month, according to the report. Sales at general merchandise stores rose 0.4%. Sales at home furnishings and furniture stores were flat, while electronics stores and outlets that sell building materials saw declines reflecting a difficult housing market. The retail sales report, which reflects the sixth consecutive monthly gain, reinforces the fact that American consumers, as a whole, are showing no signs of pulling back on their spending, which powers most of the economy. That spending comes despite attempts by the Federal Reserve to cool spending and hiring. That's good news heading into the critical holiday shopping season. But the robust sales report also means that the Fed officials could leave the door open for additional rate hikes. That means that shoppers could face higher interest rates for awhile.“If the cost-of-living crisis has hit consumer confidence, you wouldn’t know it judging by a second month of strong retail sales with the consumer buying everything that wasn’t nailed down,” said Christopher S. Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS LLC, a financial markets research company. “Fed officials have another rate hike this year up on their forecast board, and they will need to use it, if the economic data continues to surprise economists on the upside.” Still, questions remain whether shoppers will finally buckle under more bad news piling up from federal budget wrangling, the resumption of student loan repayments, and new global tensions tied to the Oct. 7 surprise attack by Hamas in Israel. The moratorium on student loan payments lifted Oct. 1. Analysts say that shoppers could also become rattled if the Israel-Hamas war is not contained.Moreover, the relentless spending by shoppers also comes at a cost to their household finances.“We have repeatedly under-estimated the U.S. consumer, “ said Tim Quinlan, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Economics. ”But in pulling off this spending spree, consumers have dented their household finances, a theme that is evident not only in the diminished savings, but also the trend rise in credit card delinquencies.”Healthy consumer spending is expected to lift the economy's growth rate to about 3.5% or possibly even higher in the July-September quarter. September's strong sales also suggests the economy may not slow as much in the final three months of the year as previously expected, analysts said. The retail sales report came as businesses across the U.S. economy ramped up hiring in September, defying surging interest rates, and the ongoing threat of a government shutdown. The strength of hiring has surprised economists inside and outside of the Fed. Consumer prices rose 0.4% from August to September, below the previous month’s 0.6% pace. The report from the Labor Department also showed that year-over-year inflation was flat last month from a 3.7% rise in August.Meanwhile, retailers are pulling out discounts and other incentives to get shoppers to open their wallets for the holiday season as they worry about shoppers' finances. Best Buy, the nation's largest consumer electronics retailer, unveiled a new experience that gives shoppers a chance to access some of the biggest deals and cool gadgets of the holiday season. The items, which kicked off late last month, are only available in limited quantities and exclusively through the Best Buy app. ——————AP Economics Writer Christopher Rugaber contributed to this report from Washington.——————Follow Anne D’Innocenzio: http://twitter.com/ADInnocenzio。    哈喽大家好,我是豆莱~    2026年8月下旬,中埃"文明之鹰-2026"空军联合训练在埃及拉开帷幕。    首个飞行日,中国歼-16重型战机就跟埃及空军的法制"阵风"战机展开1对1对抗空战。        更霸气的是,6架歼-16经巴基斯坦卡拉奇中转、运油-20A空中加油,一口气跨越6000多公里、途经两大洲四个国家,飞行近9个小时落地埃及。    表面看是一场联合训练,实际上是一场中东版"带货直播",歼-16是来秀肌肉的,真正摆在货架上的王牌,是歼-10C和歼-35。    阵风对阵歼16,埃及这是铁了心要下单了    埃及这次出动阵风,可不是随便玩玩。    要知道,通过军演可以获得对手装备很多敏感信息,所以卖家都会严格限制。        哪怕是中巴这种关系,国内至今都没有跟巴基斯坦的F-16交手的经验,阵风跟歼-10CE本来就是直接竞争对手,又在南亚结了梁子。    埃及人能让法国同意阵风出场,付出的代价肯定不低,这说明什么?说明埃及空军已经下定决心,距离正式采购歼-10CE只有咫尺之遥了。    而且这次中国派出的歼-16机队,是精英中的精英,一般情况下国内不会特意抽调少量精锐去参加境外演练,因为违背了训练部队的基础用意,但这次不一样,下了血本。        6架歼-16只经一次中转就落地埃及,本身就是非常直接的威慑。

二 | 足以让周围国家认清现实。    不过说实话,埃及的阵风虽然出场有诚意,但战斗力实在配不上歼-16的付出。    因为埃及的阵风只搭载"米卡"导弹,最大射程才约50到80公里。

三 |     这个空战水平,跟歼-16搭载的霹雳-15比,差了整整一个时代。霹雳-15射程超过200公里,等于你还没看见我,我的导弹已经到了。

四 |         有人可能会问,歼-16表现这么好,埃及会不会直接买歼-16?答案是不会,歼-16目前不卖。

五 |     原因不复杂,它脱胎于苏-30平台,未经俄方许可不能出口。    但还有一个更现实的原因——如果埃及真拿到歼-16,以色列大概率能干出连夜空袭摧毁新机的操作。

六 |     因为歼-16大航程、高载弹量的硬件优势,叠加冠绝全球的机载雷达和航电设备,再得到先进预警机加持,以色列的F-15I肯定扛不住,F-35A也未必能稳占上风。这等于直接挖了以色列军队傲视中东的根基。        所以歼-16的定位很明确:一方面展示中国强大的超视距空战能力,一方面威慑不轨势力,最终为歼-10CE出口铺平道路。    这里有个前车之鉴,2019年俄罗斯苏-35SE出口埃及,组织联合军演时规模可观,但反而突出了单机性能有限。    埃及没抗住美国压力,最终功败垂成,中国有这个惨烈例子在前,自然不会重蹈覆辙。    而且歼-10CE已经在南亚展示了真正水平,印巴空战中,巴基斯坦歼-10C超视距距离发射霹雳-15,直接打爆印度阵风,效果比歼-10C赴埃及军演十次都强。        如今歼-16在埃及的表现更加惊人,自然是为了更庞大的收益,埃及有心引进组装生产线、装备上百架歼-10CE的说法,恐怕并不是空穴来风。    埃及空军纸面实力唬人,实则三大主力全是阉割版    埃及为什么铁了心要买中国战机?因为自家的机队看着唬人,实则中看不中用。    埃及空军纸面实力其实并不弱,拥有大约218架F-16、43架法国阵风、还有大约45架米格-29M。        美法俄三系主力战机同台,放眼全世界也找不到第二家。但这支机队的真实战力,没有想象中那么强。

七 |     先说美国的F-16,美国卖给埃及的F-16全是阉割版,没有AIM-120中距弹,只有老掉牙的AIM-7"麻雀",雷达都是脉冲多普勒雷达。    受美国维护以色列地区军事优势的原则限制,埃及的F-16基本没有超视距空战能力。        空有二百多架飞机,但真打起来导弹射程还不如人家的零头。即便美方近期松口出售少量AIM-120,面对两百多架的机群也只是杯水车薪。

八 |     再说法国阵风,阵风就更不用说了,已经被歼-10C在南亚杀爆了。    而且埃及的阵风只搭载米卡导弹,射程才50到80公里,跟歼-10C的霹雳-15比,根本不在一个量级,法国人为了照顾以色列,连更先进的"流星"超视距导弹都没卖给埃及。        最后说俄罗斯的米格-29M,米格-29缺陷更大,依然使用着机械扫描雷达,在远程探测和多目标交战能力方面严重受限。

九 |     更关键的是,俄罗斯现在自己都焦头烂额了,后续维护和升级更是没谱。    反观歼-16就完全不同了,虽然它是以苏-30为基础仿制而来的,但是除了躯壳还是俄罗斯的,整个灵魂都换了。    它配置最先进的有源相控阵雷达,综合性能远超埃及的F-16、米格-29以及阵风。        挂载的是霹雳-15远程空空导弹,射程超过200公里,最大载弹量12吨,相当于轻型轰炸机。    作战半径更是超过了1500公里,只需要稍加对比,那高下立判,这就是为什么埃及要把阵风干拉出来跟歼-16练练。    不练不知道,一练吓一跳,差距到底有多大,埃及飞行员自己心里最清楚。

十 |     苏伊士运河才是埃及的命根子,美国下一个目标会不会是它    埃及急着升级空军,还有一个更深层的原因——苏伊士运河的安全。

十一 |     对埃及而言,现在正处在地缘政治的十字路口,恰好它也需要中式武器来给镇镇场子,为什么这么说?        因为美国已经掌控了巴拿马运河,在霍尔木兹海峡也跟伊朗缠斗了近半年。    虽说没有拿下,但这场仗打下来,全世界可都看清了一个事实——美国为了控制全球关键水道,是不惜发动战争的。    而埃及手里攥着全球最值钱的黄金水道——苏伊士运河。

十二 | 每年光是运河通行费,就能让埃及狂赚上百亿美元。        巴拿马运河已经在美国手里了,霍尔木兹海峡的争抢一旦结束,那美国的下一个目标会不会是苏伊士运河?埃及不得不提前掂量这件事儿。    如果美军真来了,埃及拿什么保护苏伊士运河?靠那200多架阉割版F-16?靠射程几十公里的阵风?    靠俄罗斯都维护不了的米格-29?显然靠不住,这个时候,中式装备就显得无比重要。        而且跟歼-16一同进入埃及的,还有空警-500预警机、运油-20A加油机、运-9LG电子战机、运-20运输机以及直-20搜救直升机,这是一套完整的中式空中作战体系。    从预警机到加油机到战斗机,到远程空空导弹,全链条覆盖。这都是埃及想要的。    可中国盯着的不只是埃及,中国只是希望借助埃及这个舞台,让整个中东看看清楚,中式空战体系的真正实力,埃及是中东大国,军事实力非洲第一。

十三 |     埃及用了、认可了,其他海湾国家自然会看在眼里、记在心里,这就是示范效应。

十四 |     歼16是来秀肌肉的,歼10C和歼35才是货架上的王牌    说到这里,整件事的脉络就非常清晰了,歼-16飞入埃及,表面上是参加一场联合训练,实际上就是在中东做一场带货直播。    这种体系上门的实操演示,比任何静态航展恐怕都更有说服力。    它能让埃及和海湾各国真正意识到,顶级战斗机供应商除了美法俄,中国也已经打入全球高端军工市场了。        但歼-16只是中国抛出来的"诱饵",歼-16真正强大的,不是它的外壳,而是它的体系化打击能力。    有源相控阵雷达、通用数据链、先进航电系统以及超级远程空空导弹,联合组成的体系化打击能力,才是它强大的根本。    而这套体系,是可以移植到歼-10C和歼-35上的,中国真正想卖的,是歼-10C和歼-35的空战组合。    试想一下,连歼-16都这么强了,那歼-35得强成啥样了?中东各国如果想进入隐身时代。        又不想买不靠谱的苏-57,也不想买附加一堆政治条件的F-35,那除了歼-35恐怕没有第二个选择。    这就是中国的阳谋,先用歼-16秀肌肉,让你看到中式体系的天花板有多高。再用歼-10C打开市场,让你买得起、用得好。    最后用歼-35收割高端市场,让你进入隐身时代只能找中国,一步一步,稳扎稳打。    而且歼-10CE已经有实战背书了,印巴空战中,巴基斯坦的歼-10C超视距距离发射霹雳-15,直接打爆印度阵风。    返回,查看更多

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Published on:20:37:02


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